南方财经全媒体集团首席记者 施诗 上海报道
On Friday, October 18, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, with a 4.6% year-on-year expansion in the third quarter, despite a complicated external environment and emerging challenges at home.As more monetary and fiscal measures are unveiled, China’s economy will maintain the upward growth momentum. How will China’s economy perform in the fourth quarter? At the same time, how will an easing cycle affect global economy? What are the main challenges?
In an interview with SFC reporter, Richard Yetsenga, ANZ Group Chief Economist, pointed out that stimulus measures and structural reforms are crucial for sustaining China's growth trajectory. He stated that ongoing stimulus measures and structural reforms can sustain China's economic growth at good rates well into 2025.
Looking ahead, Yetsenga suggested that we can expect a pretty solid year for global growth in 2025, bolstered by the global trend of declining interest rates.
SFC Markets and Finance: Some major central banks have cut rates in recent months,will it be a global trend?
Richard Yetsenga: I think it will be a global trend, and it’s good news. The interest rates that central banks raised in 2022 and 2023, which caused inflation to peak and then decline, cannot be the rates needed to maintain inflation at target. Therefore, we’ll see some interest rate cuts.
The Fed has already eased in the US, and other economies like New Zealand, the UK, and several others have also started easing.
However, I believe the easing cycle will look very different from the tightening cycle. During the tightening cycle, central banks were rushing to catch up, so when they began adjusting rates, they movedvery aggressively and consistently. In contrast, the easing cycle will very much depend on local conditions, and interest rates won’t return to their 2021 levels from before the tightening cycle.
So far this year, the Fed has cut rates by 50 basis points, New Zealand by 50, Europe by 25, and the UK by 25, with some countries spacing out their cuts. I believe the easing cycle will be much more de-correlated, staggered, and driven by local conditions.
Still, lower interest rates into 2025 is good news for the global economy.
SFC Markets and Finance:Speaking of the Fed, its decision in September triggered debate,do you think it's actually too aggressive?
Richard Yetsenga: Alittle bit.I was surprised the Fed eased in September by 50 basis points. It didn't seem consistent with the data I was looking at, and it didn't seem consistent with the signals we'd had from the Fed.In fact, the data that came out after the Fed cut by 50 basis points seems to suggest they may have been a little too hasty.
Let's also remember the history from December last year — nearly a year ago, Powell, the chairmanof the Fed, suggested that the Fed would soon be easing, and it took nine months for them to actually ease. So I don't know that they've had a full grasp on the nature of this cycle. I think they expected the US economy to be weaker, inflation to decline more quickly, and for them to be able to ease more quickly.
The market has also become less comfortable with the idea that the Fed will ease at every meeting. The risk of the Fed skipping a meeting, easing, pausing, then easing again, I think, is increasing.
SFC Markets and Finance:Do you think the US inflation has achieved the Fed's goal in September?
Richard Yetsenga: No, it hasn't.The Fed targets inflation as measured by the private consumption deflator. Most people look at the Consumer Price Index, the CPI. The CPI is still around 2.5%, while the core measure of the private consumption deflator is closer to 2%. However, on most inflation measures, inflation still has some room to decline. The challenge for the Fed at the moment is that the current numbers we're seeing for the US economy suggest growth remains quite strong. We probably need growth to slow a bit further for inflation to decline more, allowing the Fed to achieve its target.
So, I think the market's idea that the Fed will keep easing very consistently all the way through to the end of next year, that’s probably too aggressive. I believe the Fed will move much more slowly and sporadically than that.
SFC Markets and Finance: We know the next FOMC meeting will take place after the U.S. election.How will the election result influence the Fed's decision?
Richard Yetsenga: The Fed has to focus on the economy and the economic cycle, not the political cycle, of course. But if there's an election where the two candidates have very different policy positions, and where the economy might be different depending on the outcome, the Fed, of course, needs to consider that in its risk management. Remember, in the US, the presidential election is in November, and the new president doesn't take office until January. Even then, it will take some time to implement their policies. So, I think the Fed has time.
For the Fed's next meeting, the election will not be a feature, but it will certainly be part of the Fed's forecasts. As we get through the election, the Fed will have to take more account of the different policy positions. I think the main policy differences between the candidates for the Fed are around tariffs, trade, and fiscal policy. Both candidates are discussing the budget deficit getting larger, which I think most people outside the US wonder if that is wise. However, Vice President Harris's plans embody a smaller increase in the budget deficit than presidential candidate Trump's plans, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
So, for the Fed, I believe a change from a Democratic president to a Republican president would have a bigger impact on their forecasts, certainly for 2025 and 2026.
SFC Markets and Finance: Will the budget deficit be a big crisis for next president?
Richard Yetsenga: I don't think “crisis”is the right word. I'm alert and watchful, rather than alarmed, about the US budget deficit and the US fiscal position. The Congressional Budget Office says that for the next decade, based on current policy, the US budget deficit might be 6% of GDP a year. I think that's too big. I think it's likely to be sustained at levels that are too big. Additionally, US government debt is already 130% of GDP. So, the numbers don't look good, and the lack of agreement over fiscal policy is not constructive.
Moreover, US tax revenue is very, very low, only around 20% of GDP. So, if there's a fiscal problem, the US has the ability to tax more to help solve the problem. Politics doesn’t seem close to agreeing on higher taxation, but I think it will take a long time before we reach a genuine fiscal crisis, and there will eventually be support for more taxation in the US.
SFC Markets and Finance: Are you confident with the US economy?
Richard Yetsenga: I don't know if “confident”is the right term. I think the main issues for the US economy are supply-side rather than demand-side, and that's a good problem in a way. The harder problem is when the main issue is demand-side.
But for the US, growth remains strong. There's a strong desire to produce more electronics in the US, a strong desire to produce more elements of the climate transition in the US, and a strong desire to push ahead with the climate transition.
Household balance sheets remain in very strong shape, so consumption has been quite good. There's a strong desire to build more homes in the US, and all of these factors are adding to a strong pipeline of work. However, accessing the resources to deliver that work and also bringing inflation back to target is really the policy challenge in the US.It's a better policy challenge than the opposite challenge, which is a deep and nasty recession, where demand-side is the big problem.
However, I think certainly, if you look at the state of the political debate and the economy in the US, that supply-side problem is causing some issues, and the US is not alone in facing many of those challenges. Many economies would like to produce more domestically, would like to produce more housing, would like to gofaster on the climate transition, and would like strong consumption and household spending. It’s difficult to have all of those things at the same time, and I think those supply-side challenges will limit how much interest rates can come down.
As I said, that's a real policy challenge, but it's better than the other challenge, which is a significant demand-side challenge.
SFC Markets and Finance: How many times will the Fed cut rates?And how many basis points will they cut in this easing cycle?
Richard Yetsenga: The tightening cycle was about 500 basis points,or about 5%. We think the easing cycle in total will be about 200basis points, so a bit less than half of the tightening cycle. The Fed has already moved by 50 basis points, which means there are 150 basis points to go.
It’s more likely we will have a mix of 25 basis point moves and then pauses at some meetings. The Fed’s move of 50 basis points is probably the exception.I believe we will now see a more gradual, modest, and slower easing cycle than we've seen to date.
Interest rates are not going back all the way to where they were in 2020 and 2021, but still, a 3% or 3.5% interest rate in the US economy will be much better than 5.5%.
SFC Markets and Finance: So it will be a relatively high rate in the US, right?
Richard Yetsenga: I think so, yes. The US is not alone. Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Korea, along with most economies coming out of the pandemic, will end up with interest rates at higher levels than before the pandemic.
There are a few reasons for that.I spoke about supply-side challenges, which I think apply everywhere. If we look at the advanced economies, such as the OECD, the working-age population has started to decline over the past 5 to 10 years. That’s only the second time that’s happened in 150 years. So, we need more domestic production, more consumption, more houses, and more infrastructure, but the working-age population as a share of the total is declining. That’s why that supply-side challenge exists, and it’s one of the reasons interest rates will be higher for longer.
SFC Markets and Finance: In the past months, how has the Fed's rate cuts affected other markets,especially emerging markets?
Richard Yetsenga: I think the backdrop for emerging markets has been very good. The Fed raised rates by 500 basis points, and in large part, emerging markets handled that in very good shape. Remember 10 years ago, when the Fed was raising interest rates, there were substantial financial problems, particularly in Asia. You'll recall the fragile five economies, including Indonesia and India. This time, there were no fragile five, and in fact, there were no fragile economies in Asia at all.
This largely reflects the fact that Asian fundamentals are much stronger. Economies that traditionally had big trade deficits, such as India and Indonesia, have seen significant improvements. Domestically in Asia, especially in the smaller economies, financial fragilities have improved, with less hot money flowing into the region and banking systems in much firmer shape. Domestic credit growth has not been as strong as it was 10 years ago.
So, the Fed easing has unquestionably helped Asia and has helped cement the economic cycle. The US dollar has been a bit weaker, and Asian currencies are stronger. But the better news is that during the tightening cycle, Asia was quite resilient.
SFC Markets and Finance: China is a very important part for the emerging market.So how do you think about China's performance in the part three quarters?
Richard Yetsenga: China is about half of Asian GDP, making it enormously important as the second-largest economy in the world. Sometimes, I don't know if everybody remembers the scale: China is about an $18 trillion economy. China is enormously important.I think China's growth and continued growth, even though it's been slower, has been an important bedrock for the way the rest of the region has performed.
SFC Markets and Finance: Do you think foreign companies still want to invest in China?
Richard Yetsenga: Unquestionably, China is the second-largest economy in the world and the largest trading nation. Most companies are still looking for efficiencies, with supply-side and cost pressures continuing to grow.
However, I think companies are looking elsewhere to diversify their footprint, given the nature of the global economic cycle and the fact that the global economy as a whole has continued to slow down over previous decades.
I think companies are always looking for the next opportunity.
SFC Markets and Finance: Did you have any takeaways from China's third plenary session?
Richard Yetsenga: I think the third plenum left me with the impression of very strong support for the existing policy approach and the existing policy stance, along with a commitment to continue moving incrementally on structural reform. As economies go through transitions, the requirement for reform grows over time. The third plenum emphasizes the track that China is on from a structural perspective, continuing to open up and trying to emphasize and energize the new productive forces.
Of course, sitting outside China, you can't help but see the success in a number of sectors, such as electric vehicles and solar batteries, which really contribute to the push into the climate transition. China has made incredible inroads, and I think the third plenum continues to push in that direction.
SFC Markets and Finance: How do you understand the new quality productive forces?
Richard Yetsenga: So I think for China, it's shifting beyond manufacturing, which might have suited China through a certain stage of development, and now it’s moving into areas of growth that are characterized by higher productivity and higher technology. Mass manufacturing is something China will always be strong at because of its scale and size, but as you develop economically, that becomes a competition for price, and not all of those sectors will continue to sustain themselves in China as it continues to develop.
Economic development goes hand in hand with higher costs of production, so releasing some of that production to other economies, while China continues to invest in new productive forces, will ensure that China continues to develop and grow its standard of living.
SFC Markets and Finance: Like you mentioned, China is on the way to high-quality development.So what industries will be the main force for China's economy in the future?
Richard Yetsenga: Well, to achieve high-quality development and to move through the upper-middle-income phase into the advanced economy phase, private consumption in China must develop, and service sectors must also grow. As economies grow and become wealthier, they will naturally release mass production to other economies.
Currently, consumption in China accounts for about half of GDP. To sustain GDP growth at perhaps 5% in real terms, China needs to grow private consumption at above 5%. There are some challenges around that, particularly due to the decline in the population in China, which is likely to continue. So, reform in private consumption is just as important as reform in the industrial economy in China.
SFC Markets and Finance: China unveiled the new fiscal and monetary measures in recent weeks.So how will these new measures boost economic growth?
Richard Yetsenga: The offshore community is looking for the magic 10 trillion Renminbi package. To put that in some scale, in 2008 and 2009, in today's terms, the stimulus then was worth maybe 11 trillion Renminbi. So, 10 trillion is big, and the economy today is about 125 trillion Renminbi. 10 trillion is maybe 7.5% of GDP, which is very substantial.
However, the difference between this stimulus and the 2008 stimulus is the target and the time frame. The 2008 stimulus was very demand-driven to stimulate activity, while the stimulus today is more designed to help clean up balance sheets, assist local governments, help banks, and ultimately stimulate growth through secondary measures.
Additionally, the previous stimulus was delivered quite aggressively and had a big impact on China's economy and the world economy. This stimulus is likely to be stretched out over as much as three years, so there will be some growth impact, and the financial markets have obviously been trying to incorporate that into the way they assess the level of financial asset prices. But the bigger impact, I think, will be on China's ability to sustain growth over time.
SFC Markets and Finance: Do you expect more stimulus?
Richard Yetsenga: I think we need to treat stimulus as something that responds to the environment. Already, over recent months, as the economy continued to slow, the stimulus has responded to the economy.
I suspect that China would like to sustain growth close to 5%, and this year will be close to 5%. Therefore, I believe the stimulus will continue to be delivered until we find that growth has stabilized around that level.
SFC Markets and Finance: What should the policymakers do to achieve this 5% growth goal?
Richard Yetsenga: Well, the plenum emphasized the role of structural reform, which should continue to be pushed through. Stimulus without reform will stimulate growth, but then growth will revert to the previous baseline. However, I believe it's the combination of the two that will give some real vigor to the Chinese economy as we go into 2025.
The stimulus announcements, which have been coming out and have been moving all the time, suggest that we're now at a scale of stimulus that can impact the way the Chinese economy performs over the next quarter or two. Continuing with structural reform, hopefully, those two combined can sustain growth at good rates well into 2025.
SFC Markets and Finance: How about global economy?What are the main challenges?
Richard Yetsenga: A lot of people still ask me about global recession and the risk of global recession through this tightening cycle. I think the risk of global recession has been quite low, at least in my assessment. Our experience with deep, damaging recessions is that they need some financial trigger.
Actually, for most of the world, financial systems are in better shape than they have been for more than 15 years. Balance sheets—private sector balance sheets—are in better shape than they have been for more than 15 years. These are the factors that typically cause problems in the global economy and trigger deep and damaging downturns.
I think the main issues in the global economy are supply-side challenges, aging populations, and a falling share of working-age individuals in the population. There’s also a big climate transition agenda and a significant housing construction agenda, as housing affordability becomes a bigger issue in more economies. The main challenge for the global economy is how to deliver on these fronts with limited resources, not the risk of a deep and damaging recession.
SFC Markets and Finance: Which region will drive the global growth?
Richard Yetsenga: Asia is the strongest region from a growth perspective. Most of the world has slowed down over the last few decades, with the two big economies that haven't slowed down being the US and India. India, of course, is the cornerstone for South Asia. India is much smaller than the US, and certainly much smaller than China, but it's been growing quite well and is charting its own course as it develops.
India is still a developing economy; its GDP per capita is about $2,500, and the overall economy is nearly $4 trillion, making it similar in size to Japan and Germany. I think that over the next 10 years, India will probably go through a development phase that takes it into the middle-income economy, which will mean it becomes a bigger and more important participant in global trade and supply chains.
While in the last few decades, North Asia was sustained first by Japan and Korea and then by China, which filtered through to the rest of Asia, now I think you're starting to see some influence from South Asia as India begins to rise.
I can assure you, when I travel to other parts of the world, investors and businesses with a global view still look at the world and identify Asia as the place they want to be—the most bountiful growth opportunity and development opportunity, and often where there are still some demographic wins.
SFC Markets and Finance: The global trade protection is rising.How will this influence global economy?
Richard Yetsenga: It's troubling that the rise in global trade protectionism is occurring. There’s no question that the global economy has been more prosperous because of trade liberalization and openness. Unfortunately, it does seem that the global economy has passed its most liberal phase from a trade perspective, and protectionism, friend-shoring, and re-shoringhave been creeping back in.
The IMF has done some detailed work on this, and their assessment is a bit troubling. If the global economy retreats back to levels of openness that we saw in the year 2000, it could cost as much as 4.5% from the level of global GDP. I think we need to keep talking about the benefits of a free and open trading system. It has been important for developing the Asian region and is essential for improving living standards everywhere. Unfortunately, at the moment, it seems like there’s some push in the other direction.
SFC Markets and Finance: I think we should have more cooperation in the future to boost global economy.
Richard Yetsenga: Global trade liberalization occurred in an environment where there was a large agreement at multilateral organizations around tariff reduction and trade liberalization, such as support for the World Trade Organization. Unfortunately, at those institutions, there’s a lot of disagreement about the best way to move forward. As an economist, I hope that we find more appropriate avenues for cooperation and reaching agreement around trade.
Because, of course, it’s not just the rules around trade that can cause some friction, but also if businesses worry that the rules may be changed arbitrarily or frequently, it reduces their confidence. They’ll tend to invest at home rather than invest outside, and it’s the investing outside that also brings the world closer together.
SFC Markets and Finance: As we are near the end of 2024,would you like to brief global economy？
Richard Yetsenga: 2025will be a pretty solid year for global growth. Interest rates are coming down, which will ensure that the recovery we've had out of the pandemic and the tightening will continue to sustain itself.
The main challenges and the things I'm worried about are a lot of government demands on the economy across a number of economies. 2024 has been the year of elections, both in Asia and globally, and as new governments come in, typically, they're trying to do more rather than less. They're trying to improve equality, build more housing, and deliver more on the climate transition, and I think all of that is likely to cause still some challenges in the commodity markets.
The commodity markets themselves are also subject to the climate transition; accessing new deposits has become more difficult and more onerous, and, of course, different commodities will be required as we move through the transition than perhaps the world used to consume previously. But next year, I think, will be a very solid year for the global economy.
策划:于晓娜
监制:施诗
制作:蔡于恬
新媒体统筹:丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 黄达迅
海外运营监制: 黄燕淑
海外运营内容统筹: 黄子豪
海外运营编辑:庄欢 吴婉婕 龙李华 张伟韬
出品:南方财经全媒体集团